Summary: Rupee strengthened in Futures trade by 0.55% during the week ending 6th February. The market remained peace and quiet and witnessed ranged trading with gradual appreciation of Rupee. The rupee strengthened mainly because the dollar has gone weaker against the pound and euro during the week.
Market Analysis: Rupee ended at 48.7575 up 0.2725 or 0.55% in USDINR February Futures
Contract during the week. Indian Rupee strengthened against USD in line with other G-7
and Asian currencies. US Dollar Index was down 0.76% this week as the European Central
Bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday and the pound hit a two and half week
high against the dollar. The benchmark JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index finished the week
higher by 0.64% as most of Asian currencies appreciated against greenback.
Demand for USD has been hit by the fall in crude prices, but sluggish exports were
checking a rapid rupee rise. With a provisional estimate of exports at $143 billion during
April-January 2009 and imports amounting to $245 billion during the same period, the
trade deficit crossed a record $100 billion in the first 10 months of the current fiscal to
stand at $102 billion. Indian Rupee was also supported by positive sentiment in the Indian
equities market during the week.
Contract during the week. Indian Rupee strengthened against USD in line with other G-7
and Asian currencies. US Dollar Index was down 0.76% this week as the European Central
Bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday and the pound hit a two and half week
high against the dollar. The benchmark JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index finished the week
higher by 0.64% as most of Asian currencies appreciated against greenback.
Demand for USD has been hit by the fall in crude prices, but sluggish exports were
checking a rapid rupee rise. With a provisional estimate of exports at $143 billion during
April-January 2009 and imports amounting to $245 billion during the same period, the
trade deficit crossed a record $100 billion in the first 10 months of the current fiscal to
stand at $102 billion. Indian Rupee was also supported by positive sentiment in the Indian
equities market during the week.
Technical Analysis: The Rupee is still trading in a very narrow range and yet to show
any directional trend. Sentiment in Indian equities market remains key factor to watch for
USDINR trade at the moment.
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